A lot can be and has been said about Mr. Fredette. Like how Jimmer isn't his real name (duh!), how he's leading the NCAA in scoring (27.4 ppg), how he's able to shoot from anywhere on the court (no really, LITERALLY anywhere), or how his dad is Mormon and his mom is Catholic. Or, my personal favorite, his brother TJ is an aspiring rap artist who frequently writes lyrics about Jimmer.
(here's one such track: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsMauWl02vI)
All this is fine and good, but there are some other things being said about the point guard from Glens Falls, NY, that are really starting to make me wonder about the intelligence level of some so called "experts".
Specifically, how he's in a "3 man race" for POY. The other two candidates? Kemba Walker, G, UCONN, and Jared Sullinger, F, Ohio St.
Now, Kemba Walker is a bona fide NBA prospect, as probably is Sullinger because of his size and strength. But to say either of them is having a better year than Fredette is absurd!
In fact, many ESPN, FoxSports, and SportsIllustrated reporters believe Sullinger holds the slight edge over Fredette as the favorite to win the award. I could try and explain to you in words why I believe this to be absurd, but I can do better than that.
I'll let the numbers do my talking for me.
I sat down and compared Jimmer Fredette's offensive statistics to those of both Walker and Sullinger. The leader in each category is listed first, with the margin of difference between the two players given in +/- form.
The results:
Fredette vs. Walker
Games Played: Fredette +2
Fredette: 21
Walker: 19
Minutes Per Game: Walker +1.9
Fredette: 34.1
Walker: 36.0
Points Per Game: Fredette +3
Fredette: 27.4
Walker: 24.4
Field Goal%: Fredette +.038
Fredette: .482
Walker: .444
3 point%: Fredette +.072
Fredette: .421
Walker: .349
Free Throw%: Fredette +.070
Fredette: .901
Walker: .831
_________________________________________________
Fredette vs. Sullinger
Games Played: n/a
Fredette: 21
Sullinger: 21
Minutes Per Game: Fredette +3.8
Fredette: 34.1
Sullinger: 30.3
Points Per Game: Fredette +9.6
Fredette: 27.4
Sullinger: 17.8
Field Goal%: Sullinger +.094
Fredette: .482
Sullinger: .576*
3 point %: Fredette +.199
Fredette: .421
Sullinger: .222*
Free Throw%: Fredette +.171
Fredette: .901
Walker: .730
*Sullinger plays Forward, so he shoots closer to basket (better FG%, poor 3P%)
Moral of the story: If it truly is a 3-way race between these players, Jimmer Fredette is clearly the obvious choice to win the Wooden Award, judging by the numbers.
You know what they say: Numbers never lie.
1 comment:
My own two cents: First, the reason why Walker or Sullinger even have a chance of beating out Fredette is twofold: one, the perceived quality of their Big East/Big Ten schedules; and two, Fredette's lack of defensive aggressiveness.
The first argument is total bullhockey, since BYU's strength of schedule to this point is .5997 (UConn barely leads at .6008 and Ohio State is laughably behind at .5574) So the SOS argument can't account for the difference in production.
The second argument has some merit. Fredette tends to play off his man quite a bit and isn't the stopping force Walker or Sullinger is. However, his offensive value more than outweighs whatever defensive deficiencies he has.
My vote, given the recent trend of Fredette's scoring and Walker's lack thereof, together with the fact that Ohio State doesn't rely on Sullinger the way BYU or UConn rely on their guards (i.e. if Sullinger went down or had an off night there's someone else who can replace him), my nod goes to Fredette.
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